Friday, January 12, 2007

The Future and its Enemies












I just finished The Future and its Enemies by Virginia Postrel. It deftly describes dynamism, the messy but incredibly vital process which creates the inherently unknowable future. The book describes these processes as they apply to diverse human enterprises, including high technology, evolution of cities, and even fashion. It's also a polemic work, which cautions us against stasism ( resistance to change) and technocracy, which values change but seeks to control it (usually producing unintended consequences). I agree with the author that we should not unnecessarily stand in the way of dynamism (and she provides excellent examples of bad policy); however my definition of what is necessary would probably differ from hers. Nevertheless, it's a recommended read that will change the way you look at the world.

If you're further interested in the processes that shape the future, Guns, Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond is an outstanding work which describes cultural and technological evolution over the entire sweep of human history. The emergence of agriculture, cities and written language are shown to occur by processes identical to those described by Ms. Postrel (I don't know if either author would agree). In both books, the ability to trade and compete with diverse partners is shown as vital to human development. However, there is a key difference between the books. While Ms. Postrel's work emphasizes the unpredictable nature of the future, Mr. Diamond shows how geographical considerations (most importantly the availability of native plants and animals for agriculture) inevitably lead to the development of the touchstones of civilization. Of course, this inevitability is only evident to us when we're looking back in time!

Full disclosure - Grace (my wife) and I recently met Ms. Postrel socially, which inspired me to read her book.

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